Birth rate: no. of live births per 1000 per year
Death rate: no. of deaths per 100 per year
Natural increase: change in pop size caused by diff between BR and DR. if BR >
DR, pop grows. If DR > BR, pop declines.
Net migration: balance between immigration and emigration. if immigration >
emigration, pop grows, if emigration > immigration, pop declines
Pop change: annual pop change of an area, is the cumulative change in the size of
its pop after both. natural change and migration have been accounted. = (BR – DR)
+/- migration
fertility rate: average no of children each woman will have in her life. if 2.1, pop
replaces itself (replacement level). If > 2.1, pop grows. if < 2.1, pop declines. no of
live births per 1000 women aged 15-49 in 1 year.
infant mortality rate: no of under 1-year olds who die, per 1000 live births per year
life expectancy: av number of years a person is expected to live. different for men
and women.
pop density: no of people in a given area, measured as no of people per km2
pop distribution: shown on a map and uses variations in pop density to show how
people are spread out across an area
Measurements
collect data about pop by regular census where every housed is counted and
questioned.
use info to plan for allocation of resources to services.
useful to NGO’s.
Factors affecting fertility levels
death rate: BR high in LICs to compensate high mortality rate and have someone to
look after mother in old age. healthcare, sanitation and diet improvements reduce
child deaths so reduce need for many children as future is secure.
Tradition: cultural expectation of large families and tradition overrides desire to
stop childbearing. Another tradition is marrying early and have children straight
away.
Education: increasing female literacy lowers fertility. knowledge of birth control,
more opportunity for employment and more choice of lifestyle.
Age structure of pop: Mali; 48% of pop is under 16, high no of future births even if
fertility levels drop, as young people still have to find a partner, settle down and
have a family. japan; 14% is under 16 so low no of future births as few women
moving into childbearing age group
Religion: Islam and roman catholic oppose contraceptive use. Richer people pay
less attention to this but still faithful.
Economic factors: children are economic assets in LICs as work on land/factory and
provide an income for family and support parents in old age. no compulsory schooling or law restricting child labour. large no. of children make family
wealthier. HICs they are an economic liability.
government policy: one child policy reduced fertility. Russia is adopting policy to
boost fertility in order to combat a future where pop. will age then decline in no
status of women: less educated have more children. women in LIC’s trapped by
poverty and cultural expectations into lifetime of childbearing, ill health, second
class legal status and lack of land. lifelong servitude. societies with educated are
more successful and prosperous.
Changing fertility rates
LICs: fastest rates of pop growth. BR declining and fall expected to continue. huge
no of young dependents in these countries ensures growth continues (pop
momentum).
HICs: pop. growth slow for years and some countries experienced a fall in pop. gov
offer financial incentives to have children. many countries with fertility rates below
replacement level. more countries will see a fall in no and in could be substantial in
some countries
Case study: Kerala’s changing fertility rates
All statistics lower than UK but higher than India. High life expectancy, high use of
contraceptives by married women and low fertility rate.
Fast growing pop (15m per year) but rate is slowing. Kerala started trend of
meeting basic needs of the people, especially women.
for a century, women treated differently in Kerala, an asset. Don’t pay a dowry,
parents receive money from bridegroom’s family. Some women can inherit and
own land, gives them financial independence and power.
high education level, half of Indian women can’t read/write but 85% of Keralese
women are literate and girls > boys in higher education. means they know how to
keep their children healthy. greater investment in healthcare by the state
government. infant mortality fallen from 240% to 14%. if children have a greater
chance of survival families will try for more. Qualified women will have a career
and marry later. average age of marriage for Keralese women is highest in India.
women who marry later have fewer children.
policy of reducing birth rate by choice not force is working. Kerala’s pop may stop
growing within 20 years which results in other problems. 33% of pop. may be over
60 by 2050. money needed for elderly homes, healthcare facilities and pensions.
more people using private healthcare as state struggles to meet increasing costs of
free healthcare.
Factors affecting mortality
poverty: MICs and LICs more likely to die young and have higher death rates than
HICs
infant mortality: high = high overall mortality. Children are most vulnerable and
affected worse than others
medical infrastructure: facility and staff shortages. Traditional remedies relied on
and don’t have a high success rate. Education important so there are doctors.
Economic development: mortality falls when country gets richer. improves clean
water and sewage disposal, soap reduces disease spread. diet and education
improves and diseases more understood Ageing pop: DR rises with more elderly even if has good medical care. Long time
HICs can have higher death rates than NICs even though NICs have a lower
GNP/person.
HIV/AIDS: major effect especially in sub-Saharan Africa. In Botswana 25% of pop
aged 15-49 is HIV positive and 16 people died a day in 2010.
Non-communicable diseases: degenerative diseases/diseases of affluence. health
conditions for which personal lifestyles and social conditions found in HICs are
contributory factors. more common when economy develops, and disposable
income rises. e.g. of diseases: heart disease and obesity. Causes: more vehicles
and less sport.
Injury related deaths: murders and war casualties. road traffic accidents. industrial
injuries where factory jobs have increased but lax laws
Pop structure
no of males and females within different age groups in the pop. divides pop into
groups of gender and age, allows detailed analysis of country. allows comparisons
with other countries and future planning, and how country has changed over time.
Dependency ratio = (young + old dependents %) / (working pop %) x 100. LICs and
MICs high due to large no of children
Support ratio = (working pop %) / (young + old dependents %) x 100. Inverse of
dependency ratio
Juvenility index = (age of pop under 20 %) / (age of pop over 20 %) x 100. Shows
proportion of youth in pop
Old age index = (age of pop over 60 %) / (age of pop under 60 %). Shows
proportion of elderly in pop
Gender issues
sex ratio = no of males per 100 females in a pop
male births often outnumber female. UK has a sex ratio of 1.05, number of
complex biological and social reasons.
natural imbalance reduced as male DR is higher.
in LICs men treated better than women, won’t get as good medical attention. life
expectancy lower for females.
Triangular graphs
pop dived into three sections: young dependents, working pop,
old dependents
analyses age structure of a pop by seeing pattern on a
triangular graph.
as a country develops it follows a predictable path across graph.
can predict future structure of country and needs of pop
used for planning purposes.
Burkina Faso pop structure
stage 2, LIC
high BR and high DR in all age groups.
low life expectancy
high child mortality rate, large reduction between 0-
4 and 5-9
DR lower than past because of aid programmes
% of young dependents bigger than % of old dependents
gov should spend money on new schools and family planning programmes
many under 20’s so pop will continue rising
food production may not keep up with pop growth and economy may not grow fast
enough to provide enough jobs
Brazil pop structure
stage 3, NIC
BR still high, expected to fall and DR quite high above 30
(sloping sides) but stabilised at low level
very low infant mortality
% of young dependents and young adults > % of old
dependents
will eventually look like USA, stabilise into stage 4
gov spending money on housing and job creation. experiencing a demographic
dividend with increased no of workers, contribute to economic growth. working pop
makes up a high proportion, many people work in informal economy and pay no
tax so difficult for job creation and housing to be paid for
many under 20’s so population will keep growing. family size decreased, no of
families increased, demand for housing still rising
USA pop structure
stage 4, HIC
low but healthy BR, low DR
high life expectancy and very low infant mortality
BR fluctuated in last 50 years
no real sign of ageing pop
% of old dependents likely to increase in near future, putting pressure on
healthcare and increased demand for sheltered housing
working population makes up significant proportion of total, due to immigration of
young adults. immigrants stopped BR falling too low and prevented many of
problems associated with ageing pop. immigration leads to social tension in
country, pressure put on housing, schools and hospitals. old people more
conservative so gov more right
Japan pop structure
stage 5, HIC
ageing population
very low BR, falling steady last 30 years
high life expectancy as large number of people over 60.
% of old dependents > % young dependents. working
pop is low. implication for provision of healthcare and services for old dependents.
taxes have to be high, due to low proportion of working pop.
pro-natalist policies to stimulate BR but not successful
immigration not suitable to ageing pop problem. pressure on social services and
social tension
companies invested heavily in robot tech, boosting
industrial productivity without need for extra workers