DTM is a graph that shows changes in country’s BR, DR and total population. can
be applied to any country. developed in 40’s and based on changes that occurred
in HICs as they modernised, assumes LICs and MICs will follow the same path.
Stage 1: BR and DR are high and fluctuating due to plague and famine. high infant
mortality and low life expectancy. pre-industrial society + subsistence farmers. no
countries in stage 1 apart from a few isolated tribes.
Stage 2: modernisation stimulates improvements and DR falls. infant mortality fall
and life expectancy increases. High BR as kids are economic assets. pop growth
due to gap between high BR and falling DR. urbanisation and industrialisation.
virtuous spiral of cumulative causation begins.
Stage 3: DR stabilises low, BR falls with improved living standards, contraception
and education. low infant mortality. kids are economic liability as can’t work. pop
growth as BR higher than DR. demographic dividend happens, large adults, small
elderly and falling youths.
Stage 4: fully developed industrial society. HICs. low fertility and mortality so pop
stabilises and stops growing. life expectancy should rise but elderly numbers are
low. BR fluctuates more than DR with economic conditions.
Stage 5: post-industrial, economy dominated by tech and service industries. high
status of women, fertility rates fall. children are economic burdens. ageing
population. DR rises. mortality exceeds fertility and pop declines. immigration is
encouraged.
Advantages of DTM
easy to understand
universal in concept, can be applied to all countries.
provides starting point for study of demographic change over time. understanding
pop explosion, accurate forecasts + manage changes well
flexible timescales, modernisation that determines how quickly a country moves
through the stages
enables comparisons to be made between countries
Disadvantages of DTM
original didn’t include 5th stage, added once the richest countries started having
low fertility levels and ageing pop
Eurocentric and assumes all countries will follow the European sequence of socioeconomic changes. local customs, religion and social attitudes may affect changes
in BR and DR
ignores differences between regions in a country
can’t predict exactly when a country will reach a certain stage or how long it’ll take
to pass through each stage
doesn’t take into account the role of gov and the policies adopted to manage pop
change
doesn’t include impact of migration, focusing solely on balance of BR and DR
can’t predict pandemics or new diseases
outbreak of war can increase DR
DTM in LICs/MICs
higher BR in stage 1 + 2 than EU countries did
stage 2 had a steeper fall in DR than EU. fell slowly in EU as industrialisation led to
gradual improvements in medical care and public health. improvements were
introduced ready made in LIC’s and had much bigger and swifter effect. quick fall in DR was helped by international aid as well as by economic development, reason
why no country remains in stage 1
BR in stage 2 increased because of increase in healthcare of childbearing women.
bigger gaps between BR and DR led to more increase in pop that the DTM
predicted
some LIC’s started with larger pop than EU countries, total increase in pop was
bigger
larger and rapid rise in total pop in many MIC’s meant that gov intervened more
than EU gov did. MIC gov played a large role in pop management, weaker
relationship between pop change and economic development.
Japan: industrialisation and urbanisation began around 1860. by 1970 – Japan was a
HIC. info suggests that it followed same path as UK with a few variations, BR rose
at start of stage 2, fuelling a faster growth rate than in the UK and passed through
stage 2 and 3 in half the time it took UK
Taiwan: development began slowly about 100 years ago when it was a Japanese
colony. after 1950, received large aid amounts from USA and development
accelerated. 1960 – 1990, economy grew at 10% per year and Taiwan became an
Asian tiger economy. info suggests that stage 2 started around 1920. as in Japan,
BR grew at start of stage 2 and remained high until start of stage 3. stage 3 saw a
quick fall in BR and annual pop growth rate. entered 4 in the 1990’s. took 75yrs to
move from 1 to 4. faster than UK or Japan. link between DTM and economic
development
Causes of youthful pop
related to demographic changes when stage 1 has been left. stage 1: high DR so
few elderly, 40 yrs. for life expectancy. stage 2: DR drops and infant mortality rate
but high BR. large no of babies born and more survive than stage 1. increases no of
youths and few elderly so proportion of young dependents increases.
high immigration levels. immigrants aged between 20-40 (child bearing age). have
babies, boost no of young dependents. e.g. east London, large immigrant pop and
25% of pop are under 15, higher proportion than UK.
Impacts of youthful pop
food supply to increase to feed extra non-productive pop
pressure on health service. high BR means more mid wives needed and clinics
needed for young children.
shortage of schools/kindergartens
pressure on gov to provide facilities and taxation to increase
rapid pop growth threatens to produce over pop and gov could introduce antinatalist policy
children need jobs when older and could increase unemployment
extra workers provide pool of cheap labour, could attract TNC’s, stimulating
industrial production and economic growth, known as a demographic dividend and
NIC experience in at stage 3.
Case study: Gambia’s youthful pop
smallest African country and 95% of pop are Muslim. taboo on contraceptives and
BR is high, av no of children per woman is 7. BR is 40 per 1000 and for every 1000
children born 11 mothers will die in child birth. life expectancy for women is 57 and
men is 53. pop will double every 28 years. very poor and not enough money to develop towns or build infrastructure. limited healthcare and infant mortality rate is
73 per 1000
problems: high dependency ratio. Finance, can’t feed and support growing family.
malnutrition is common. homes don’t have electricity and are overcrowded. poor
sanitation. Forest desertification, people use wood for fires, housing and selling.
land left ends up as desert, so temperatures rise. not enough education, shortage
of toilet facilities and educational material, schools have adopted a 2-shift system,
some children education in the morning rest in the afternoon. teachers are poor
paid and can work for 12 hours a day. 1 in 3 14-year olds have to work to help
support the family.
Responses: contraception awareness campaigns and radio adverts. NGO called
futures is delivering very cheap contraception which is subsidised by WHO. pop
growth rate dropped from 4.2% to 3%. Healthcare to reduce infant mortality,
Canada funds for free vaccines for children. improved maternity care helps
mothers survive. parents encouraged to space out births, so mother has time to
recover. managing resources by Germany funding a forest management scheme.
plan is to plant new forests and educate pop on how to look after and use the
forests. more children attending school.
Case study: UK’s ageing pop
stage 5, low and falling BR, leading to ageing pop. and slowing rising DR. decline in
total pop.
BR fell low enough to reach stage 4 in 1939. BR fall due to increased contraction
use, more employment opportunities for women, rise of urban society that no
longer saw any advantage in having large no of children and growing perception of
children as a drain on household finances
since 1945 BR has fluctuated between 13% – 18%, 2014 was just over 12%. BR has
stayed low due to 4 factors above. factors have strengthened over the years,
permanently reducing fertility.
Ageing pop improves the status of women by a smaller % of pop in reproductive
age range, leads to lower fertility. redefined gentler roles and women increasingly
expected to have a career, may not have children at all. marriage less popular and
unmarried couples living together less likely to have children. delayed motherhood
so women can build career, one child families are common. gov policy hasn’t been
pro family for last 50 years. women feel peers look down on housewives.
low and falling BR has led to ageing pop associated with stage 5 of DTM. increasing
life expectancy has contributed to ageing pop. during 1990’s, deaths from NCD’s
(non-communicable diseases) fell considerably.
2009, % of old dependents outnumber % of young dependents. DR rise as pop gets
older. stage 5 leads to declining pop. not happened in UK as immigration pop. is
growing again.
Happening as people are living longer as better medical care and better living
standards. baby boomers are now the pension boomers. BR much lower as women
having fewer babies and later.
Problems: gov struggles to pay state pensions and provide other benefits as aren’t
enough workers to pay enough tax to provide sufficient money. taxes may have to
rise. many elderly are poverty as low state pension and elderly have no savings as
assumed welfare state would look after them. NHS is under pressure as they need
more medical care. old people with no one at home stay in hospital later (bed
blockers). many elderly live in their big homes, contributes to housing shortage
and forces house prices higher.
Advantages of ageing pop: do voluntary work for charity. provide free childcare.
some elderly choose to work on, often reliable and experienced.
Strategies for coping: encourage women to have more children. encourage
immigration to boost working pop as work boosts economy and taxes pay for
elderly. immigrants boost BR. raise retirement age. encourage private rather than
state pensions
Development
increase in total value of goods/services produced by a country, leading to
improvements in people’s welfare, quality of like and social well-being.
SoL = economics with money and wealth
QoL= wealth and social + environmental factors, everything that affects
someone’s well-being and happiness
more than wealth, includes health, freedom of speech, job and food security,
education, clean environment and leisure time.
goes hand-in-hand with increased use of country’s resources (any part of
environment that can be used to meet human needs). problems start when they’re
used unsustainably.
measure development = human development index (HDI). considers these factors;
purchasing power, educational provision, life expectancy at birth
Link between pop change and development
HDI matches up with DTM.
strong link between development and fertility, fertility rate only falls when
significant development has taken place.
high HDI scores and low fertility rates = developed countries (there are anomalies)
increasing purchasing power and a decent SoL means as people get richer,
children are liability not asset. economic incentive to reduce fertility.
improvements in educational provision: longer children stay in education, later
they go to work and longer they’re a drain on finances, fewer children = less drain.
More of an understanding of contraception and family planning, will be richer and
greater incentive to control fertility. women want a career before children.
educated women take control of their lives and make their own decisions.
long and healthy life means life expectancy increases as infant mortality falls. if
people know their children will survive, they won’t have as many. increased life
expectancy means more elderly need support, but this burden is taking up by
pensions and less need for large family to fulfil this role
link affected by: laws in banning child labour, compulsory education and punishing
parents for neglect. children are less of an asset, encourages smaller families. pronatalist/anti-natalist policies. social expectations take a long time to change. man’s
status determined by family size. religion bans contraception use. takes time for
social/religious attitudes to change.