Rainfall record and storm frequency:
● Range of data suggests that Earth’s climate is warming and changing → could increase by several degrees
○ Predicted by IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)
■ Warmer weather → more evaporation → unpredicted rainfall
■ Rainfall patterns are likely to change in the UK due to oceans warming
● UK winter rainfall figures recorded between 1910 and 2015
○ Increase in extreme winter rainfall since 1980s
■ Due to increased warming of the Atlantic ocean
■ Rain-bearing depressions gain more energy and moisture
● Storms in 2013 accompanied by very strong winds
○ Increased incidence in rain-bearing storms is in line with global climate change predictions
Temperature record and drought frequency:
● UK temperatures have increased by 1°C since 1980
● Upward trend in temperature from 1976 → year of a famous drought
○ High temperatures alone don’t cause droughts
○ Rainfall deficiency is also a major cause of drought
● Not all temperatures correspond with a period of drought
○ IPCC admits that future rainfall trends will be difficult to predict
Extreme weather prediction for the future:
● Some scenarios suggest a global average temperature rise of 2 – 3°C in the 21st century
○ EA and Met Office believe that because of this, UK will experience warmer and wetter winters
■ There will be more rain-bearing depressions affecting all parts of UK
■ Leads to extreme risk of flooding and high wind speeds
● Long-term cyclical changes also take place in the temperature of the Atlantic Ocean
○ Affects position of the jet stream
■ Ocean was relatively warm between 1931 – 1960
■ Then cooled between 1961 – 1990 and has started to warm again
○ Changes could be part of a cycle happening independently , not because of climate change
● Global average temperature rise of 4 – 5°C would cause widespread melting of land and sea ice in Arctic
○ Colder water would pour into the north Atlantic
○ Leads to unknown effects for movement of air masses/ocean currents that regulate UK’s climate