Effects of Climate Change on Tropical Storms:
Climate change will alter the conditions that cause tropical storms to form
○ Climate changes results in temperature increase and a warmer atmosphere
■ Sea levels will rise due to thermal expansion → causing higher storm surges
■ Air can hold more moisture
● Increased heavy rainfall
● More destructive flooding
Intensity:
● Evidence of a link between warmer oceans and intensity of tropical storms
● Expected to become more intense by 2 – 11% by 2100
● Number of category 4/5 storms has increased since the 1970s
● Predictions suggest that every 1°C increase in tropical sea surface temperature = 3 – 5% increase in wind
speed
Frequency and distribution:
● Frequency is expected to remain the same or decrease
○ Number of category 4 – 5 storms will increase
○ Number of category 1 – 3 storms will decrease
● Regions where tropical storms are experienced are not expected to change
Uncertainty:
● Wind speed monitoring has become more accurate in recent decades
○ Predictions about climate change use old wind speed data → not accurate and unreliable
● Rate of and impact of climate change in the future is uncertain