Demographic Transition Model

  • Stage One: high birth rate and high death rate.
  • Population stable but low.
  • Births and deaths fluctuate.
  • No countries in Stage 1. Tribes in parts of Brazilian rainforests.
  • Birth rate high due to no family planning or contraception. Education poor. High infant mortality means more children conceived to replace.
  • High death rate and low life expectancy due to disease and poor sanitation/hygiene. Famine and unstable food supply. Poor diet.

 

  • Stage Two: high birth rate and declining death rate.
  • Population increases rapidly.
  • LICs like Kenya.
  • Birth rate high due to same reasons. Also need for family labour. Larger family can work the land and produce more food and money.
  • Death rate falls and life expectancy rises due to improvements in healthcare, improved transportation of food and medicine.

 

  • Stage Three: declining birth rate and small decrease in death rate.
  • Population increases at a slower rate.
  • HICs and NEEs like Australia and China.
  • Birth rate falls due to birth control and family planning. Improvement to education. Emancipation of women means more focus on career, having children later results in lower fertility rate. Also shift to manufacturing means less need for young farm labour with quality over quantity.

 

  • Stage Four: low birth rate and low death rate.
  • Population plateaus but high. Fluctuation in birth and death rates at low level.
  • HICs like most of Europe, USA, Japan etc.
  • Birth rate remains low due to increased materialism and therefore raised expense of having children, less is more. Fertility rates low due to later marriage and careers meaning later and few conceptions.
  • High life expectancy and low death rate.

 

  • Stage Five: birth rate drops below death rate.
  • Population experiences slow decrease. Death rates stable while birth rate declines.
  • Some countries like Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania and Japan.
  • Death rates remain stable as there is a large ageing population dying of old age.
  • Economic stress means people can’t afford children.